MHSAA 1A-2A-3A 2025 - Previews and Predictions

MHSAA 1A

For the boys, Cohen Moore from West Union Attendance Center has the fastest entry time with his 17:12 from the Saltillo Cross Country Invitational. Behind him is his teammate Ace Yates, holding a personal best of 17:29. Head-to-head this year, Ace Yates has won four out of their six races together, despite having a slower personal best. Based on Ace's recent performances at the Pontotoc XC Invitational and the MHSAA Region 2-1A Meet, I would consider him the favorite for this race.

PREDICTED WINNER: Ace Yates - West Union Attendance Center

For the girls, there's really no question about who will take the win. Tupelo Christian Prep's Alexia Fleming is the top seed by over two minutes with her personal best of 19:00. She will be looking to claim her first of many cross country state titles after placing fourth last year.

PREDICTED WINNER: Alexia Fleming - Tupelo Christian Preparatory School

On the boys' team side, it's a close battle between Tupelo Christian Prep and West Union Attendance Center, with Hickory Flat Attendance Center not too far behind. West Union will likely put two of their runners ahead of Tupelo Prep's first, but Tupelo Prep is aiming to squeeze their entire top five in before West Union's fourth finisher. For West Union to pull off the win, they'll need strong performances from their fourth and fifth runners to seal it. If you're Tupelo Prep, all you need to do is run the races you've been running all season and keep your 1-5 split tight. These two teams raced on different courses for their regional competitions, so it's nearly impossible to compare last week's performances directly. It's hard to pick a favorite here, but based on recent results, I have to lean toward Tupelo Prep taking the win.

PREDICTED WINNER: Tupelo Christian Preparatory School

On the girls' team side, the competition is much less intense. Leading the way in the MileSplit team rankings is Tupelo Christian Preparatory School with a dominant 26 points. French Camp Academy is currently ranked second with 108 points, and Wheeler High School sits in third with 113. I believe the battle for second and third place will be close, but when it comes to the winning team, there's really no question.

MHSAA 2A 

For the boys, we have a close race between teammates JJ Hall and Peyton Medlin from Myrtle Attendance Center, with New Site's Elijah Tucker not far behind. These three are separated by only ten seconds. Just last week at their regional meet, Peyton Medlin was the fastest of the three with his 17:43; however, Elijah Tucker wasn't far behind with a 17:49. JJ Hall holds the fastest personal best among them, but his recent performances lead me to believe that the real race will likely come down to Elijah and Peyton. When you narrow it down to their head-to-head matchups, Peyton has won two of their three meetings this year, with Elijah's performance at the South Pontotoc meet being his lone victory. If I had to pick a winner, I would favor Peyton Medlin from Myrtle due to his steady progression throughout the year and recent wins over Elijah Tucker.

PREDICTED WINNER: Peyton Medlin- Myrtle Attendance Center

For the girls, there is a clear favorite. Ally Murphy is expected to dominate the MHSAA 2A classification with her personal best of 18:32 - the fastest time in her class by over a minute and a half. Behind her, teammate Madilynn Houge will look to fend off Emily Avent of East Webster and Halli Clair Helms of Enterprise for a spot in the top three.

On the girls' team side, the competition is much more intense than the individual race. According to MileSplit team rankings, Enterprise High School (Clarke) is seeded first with 61 total points and an average time of 23:09. Just two points behind is Myrtle, totaling 63 points and averaging 22:13. In their most recent meet, Myrtle dominated their region with an average of 22:30 at New Albany. Compare that to Enterprise's regional meet, where they averaged 24:25, and it looks like Myrtle may have the upper hand.

However, Enterprise competed at Choctaw Trails, meaning those time comparisons aren't necessarily fair or accurate. These two teams haven't faced each other all year, making it difficult to fully contextualize the matchup. That said, I'm giving the edge to Myrtle based on their recent performances and Enterprise's track record at Choctaw. Both times Enterprise has raced at Choctaw this season, they've underperformed compared to their usual team average.

Since Myrtle hasn't competed at Choctaw this year, there's no direct comparison available-but there's also no reason to assume they'll run significantly slower just because of the course. The best indicator we have is last year's MHSAA Championships at Choctaw Trails, where Myrtle's team average was only 12 seconds slower than their season average from the MileSplit rankings. That suggests Myrtle performs consistently even on the Choctaw course.

This is shaping up to be a great race, but based on all available data, I think Myrtle Attendance Center has a strong chance to come away with the win.

MHSAA 3A 

For the boys, the MHSAA 3A classification has a pretty clear-cut favorite. Joseph Ross from St. Patrick Catholic High School leads the division by nearly a full minute with his 15:45 personal best from the Watson meet. Jackson Jumper is the next fastest athlete, with a personal best of 16:34.

PREDICTED WINNER: Joseph Ross - Saint Patrick Catholic High School

For the girls, it should be a strong race between four athletes. Leading the division is Evelyn Spellings from St. Andrew's Episcopal School, with a personal best of 20:09. Behind her are teammates Mary Cecilia Neely and Parker Lee, who hold personal bests of 20:18 and 20:21, respectively.

Although Evelyn Spellings has the fastest time among them, their head-to-head matchups reveal a deeper level of competition. So far this season, Evelyn and Mary Cecilia have gone back and forth at nearly every meet, with the two tied 2-2 in their matchups. However, Parker Lee defeated both of them earlier in the season, meaning she can't be counted out.

All things considered, I'm leaning toward Evelyn Spellings to take the win. She's performed the best of the three on the Choctaw Trails course and holds the fastest overall personal record.

PREDICTED WINNER: Evelyn Spellings - St. Andrew's Episcopal School

Similar to the individual races, the team race also features a clear favorite. St. Andrew's Episcopal School leads the classification with an impressive 17:35 team average and a dominant total of 26 points, according to MileSplit's team rankings. All five of their runners are seeded within the top ten.

Behind them is St. Patrick Catholic High School, averaging 17:58 and totaling 44 points as a team. While St. Patrick's did not compete at the regional meet, St. Andrew's did-dominating the combined 1A/2A/3A classification with 19 points and an average time of 18:09.

For the girls' division, St. Andrew's Episcopal School appears to be the clear favorite. They hold the top four spots in the classification, and their fifth runner is ranked seventh overall.

PREDICTED WINNER: St. Andrew's Episcopal School